Chris Bowen’s elaborate misdirection

Oil tankers are enormous—but they move slowly, at roughly the pace of a leisurely cyclist. At the outset of the illegal and immoral war against Iran, more than 200 million barrels of oil were already “on water”, en route to destinations across the globe. Some shipments are close to the Middle East; others have travelled thousands of kilometres and are nearing arrival.

The precise volume of these floating “reserves” is difficult to determine. However, with roughly 20 million barrels per day typically passing through the Strait of Hormuz, it is plausible that global supply chains could begin to seize within a month. At that point, as refining nations prioritise domestic needs, price becomes secondary—scarcity takes over.

When Chris Bowen speaks confidently of a month’s supply of petrol, diesel, and jet fuel—citing 55 ships and 30 billion litres—he is engaging in careful framing. The use of litres (a less common metric in this context) amplifies the perceived scale. Australia’s monthly consumption, however, is around 4.5 billion litres.

Bowen told The Saturday Paper that supply will not suddenly “fall off a cliff”, noting that shipments arrive at staggered intervals. That is true—but it misses the larger point. Whether depletion is gradual or abrupt, the trajectory is the same: a cliff is coming.

Even if hostilities ceased today, resupply would take months to normalise. The lag between extraction, shipping, refining, and distribution cannot be compressed on demand.

Australia is effectively on a war footing. National security and economic stability are at risk. This is the moment for decisive policy: strict rationing, accelerated investment in alternatives, and rapid transition measures.

That means scaling electric vehicle subsidies immediately. It means retrofitting bus fleets and building domestic capability to support that transition.

What it does not mean is introducing regressive measures such as Queensland’s ban on under-16s riding electric bikes and scooters. A more measured response—restricted use under adult supervision, support for “bike buses” already common in parts of Europe—would expand mobility while maintaining safety. Instead, Premier David Crisafulli has opted for a blunt, reactive approach.

There will be no soft landing here. If Bowen were being fully candid, he would be preparing Australians to batten down the hatches.